I always go back after three years to see how my evaluations worked out in terms of overall performance. A three year window gives you a pretty great way to view how you evaluated talent overall, and takes away some one year wonders. That being said, I think I ended up with some major hits, and some major misses from the 2012 draft. Let's start with the big misses first.
Biggest Miss -
Trent Richardson 94 overall grade.
Richardson is one of the biggest busts of the past decade, and not only did teams miss once on him, they missed twice. He cost the Colts a first round draft pick to Cleveland, and now he's a health scratch during the playoffs. So I don't feel so badly that I missed on Richardson too, because so did everyone else.
Big Misses, but have shown flashes -
Robert Griffin III (4th overall grade)
Matt Kalil (97 overall grade)
Morris Claiborne (96 overall grade)
In my defense these guys really have shown flashes of being brilliant players. RGIII did win the rookie of the year award over Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck! Kalil was a beast as a rookie, making a pro-bowl at left tackle, and Claiborne struggled mightily as a rookie but took major steps forward as a sophomore before getting injured in year three. I'm not ready to write any of these three off yet, but as of now, classifying them as a bust three years in is probably acceptable.
Guys I just had rated too highly -
Jonathan Martin 29th overall
Orson Charles 37th overall
I liked both of these guys a lot, I even figured Martin had a nice high floor as a good tactician out of Stanford. Turns out Martin was too weak and got bullied not only on the field but off of it as well. Charles turned into a fullback in the NFL and that experiment has not gone well. I liked his ability to block in the run game in college but his lack of true athleticism turned him into a practice squad guy at a different position. Swing and a miss.
Guys I had rated too lowly -
Russell Wilson 3rd round grade
Everybody had this grade on Wilson, but it doesn't excuse me putting him in round three. The guy is special and although everyone else passed on him as well, that doesn't mean I didn't miss and miss big here.
GUYS I GOT RIGHT IN 2012
Guys who were obvious but I still got right -
Andrew Luck 99 overall grade (my highest ever)
Luke Kuechley 6th overall grade
These two guys are going to be hall of fame players, and I had them pegged at the top of the draft. Some people were saying they would consider Griffin III with number one, they should all be fired.
Kuechley is simply the best linebacker in football.
Guys I loved and other people didn't -
Lavonte David 16th overall (actually picked 58th overall)
Bobby Wagner 34th overall (actually picked 47th overall)
Alshon Jeffrey 18th overall (actually picked 45th overall)
Kelechi Osemele 40th overall (actually picked 60th overall)
I added Wagner in here because when he went 47th overall there were a ton of pundits and experts who said that they reached by a full round, I thought it was a brilliant pick at the time and it turned out to be just that. I'm very proud of my David and Jeffrey evaluations, two of my better moves all time.
Guys I knew got picked too high -
Bruce Irvin 87th overall (actually picked 15th)
Brandon Weeden 89th overall (actually picked 22nd)
A.J. Jenkins 77th overall (actually picked 30th)
Irvin has a nice skill set but Seattle could have legitimately waited another 30 picks and still got Irvin. Weeden felt like a desperate pick at the time and that's what it turned in to. Jenkins was a strange pick especially from San Francisco, and he didn't even make it three years with the team that picked him.
I think overall I did a nice job in this draft evaluation. Obviously missing big up top in this draft hurts my overall grade, but I hit homeruns with my evaluations of David, Wagner, Jeffrey, and Osemele. I give myself probably a B for this one, as I'm not ready to write off RG3, Kalil, or Claiborne yet... but in three more years if those guys are still struggling, maybe my grade will drop down a bit
Biggest Miss -
Trent Richardson 94 overall grade.
Richardson is one of the biggest busts of the past decade, and not only did teams miss once on him, they missed twice. He cost the Colts a first round draft pick to Cleveland, and now he's a health scratch during the playoffs. So I don't feel so badly that I missed on Richardson too, because so did everyone else.
Big Misses, but have shown flashes -
Robert Griffin III (4th overall grade)
Matt Kalil (97 overall grade)
Morris Claiborne (96 overall grade)
In my defense these guys really have shown flashes of being brilliant players. RGIII did win the rookie of the year award over Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck! Kalil was a beast as a rookie, making a pro-bowl at left tackle, and Claiborne struggled mightily as a rookie but took major steps forward as a sophomore before getting injured in year three. I'm not ready to write any of these three off yet, but as of now, classifying them as a bust three years in is probably acceptable.
Guys I just had rated too highly -
Jonathan Martin 29th overall
Orson Charles 37th overall
I liked both of these guys a lot, I even figured Martin had a nice high floor as a good tactician out of Stanford. Turns out Martin was too weak and got bullied not only on the field but off of it as well. Charles turned into a fullback in the NFL and that experiment has not gone well. I liked his ability to block in the run game in college but his lack of true athleticism turned him into a practice squad guy at a different position. Swing and a miss.
Guys I had rated too lowly -
Russell Wilson 3rd round grade
Everybody had this grade on Wilson, but it doesn't excuse me putting him in round three. The guy is special and although everyone else passed on him as well, that doesn't mean I didn't miss and miss big here.
GUYS I GOT RIGHT IN 2012
Guys who were obvious but I still got right -
Andrew Luck 99 overall grade (my highest ever)
Luke Kuechley 6th overall grade
These two guys are going to be hall of fame players, and I had them pegged at the top of the draft. Some people were saying they would consider Griffin III with number one, they should all be fired.
Kuechley is simply the best linebacker in football.
Guys I loved and other people didn't -
Lavonte David 16th overall (actually picked 58th overall)
Bobby Wagner 34th overall (actually picked 47th overall)
Alshon Jeffrey 18th overall (actually picked 45th overall)
Kelechi Osemele 40th overall (actually picked 60th overall)
I added Wagner in here because when he went 47th overall there were a ton of pundits and experts who said that they reached by a full round, I thought it was a brilliant pick at the time and it turned out to be just that. I'm very proud of my David and Jeffrey evaluations, two of my better moves all time.
Guys I knew got picked too high -
Bruce Irvin 87th overall (actually picked 15th)
Brandon Weeden 89th overall (actually picked 22nd)
A.J. Jenkins 77th overall (actually picked 30th)
Irvin has a nice skill set but Seattle could have legitimately waited another 30 picks and still got Irvin. Weeden felt like a desperate pick at the time and that's what it turned in to. Jenkins was a strange pick especially from San Francisco, and he didn't even make it three years with the team that picked him.
I think overall I did a nice job in this draft evaluation. Obviously missing big up top in this draft hurts my overall grade, but I hit homeruns with my evaluations of David, Wagner, Jeffrey, and Osemele. I give myself probably a B for this one, as I'm not ready to write off RG3, Kalil, or Claiborne yet... but in three more years if those guys are still struggling, maybe my grade will drop down a bit
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