So staring in 2015 I'm going to go back and do a revisionist history and see how I did giving grades to each selection. I'll use PFF and statistics along with some analytics and common sense to come out with grades for both where they were selected by NFL teams and where I had them ranked. I'll utilize my top 32 as well as the 32 picks taken in the first round to come out with a grade for both the NFL and myself to see how efficient we are. The most efficient selectors win.
- Leonard Williams
Drafted #6 overall to the New York Jets
How did I do: A
How the NFL did: B
I can’t take much credit here, to me he was the best player in the draft clearly and he’s been a stud. His stats aren’t gaudy but he’s a really damn good player. He’s one of the best 5 techniques in the NFL and PFF gave him an 85 grade this past season. He hasn’t been a dominant force but he’s a stud. For him to fall to 6 was surprising and I think if teams had it to do over he may go earlier but 6 is probably pretty close.
2. Danny Shelton
Drafted #12 overall to the New York Jets
How did I do: C-
How the NFL did: C
I didn’t totally whiff on this but I was more wrong than the rest of the league. He’s consistently gotten better and he’s a pretty nice player but he never lived up to his potential. Last year he did grade out at an 81.5 per PFF which is solid but I thought he’d provide more as a pass rusher and as a dominant run defender. He’s a pretty good player but I thought he’d be dominant.
3. Amari Cooper
Drafted #4 to Oakland
How did I do: B-
How the NFL did: B-
He’s been pretty good but he just drops the football too damn much. I really thought his floor was higher than what it’s been and unless he can really work on his hands he may just always been a good but not great player. Neither me nor the NFL whiffed on this but neither me nor the Raiders can say, yeah we nailed this.
4 Kevin White
Drafted #7 to Chicago
How did I do: D-
How the NFL did: D
Niether of us fails his because well the kid can’t stay healthy and it’s hard to extrapolate that out. That said he’s clearly not a great player even when he’s on the field, which simply isn’t that often. I have changed my grading a bit since then to understand that kids that don’t run the route Tree well may have a tougher time adjusting. I learned since then.
5. Andrus Peat
Drafted #13 to New Orleans
How did I do: C-
How the NFL did: C
Peat has proven to be a nice solid versatile player on the front for New Orleans. He can play 4 positions on the offensive line which is a really good player to have but he doesn’t excel at any of them. I really thought he’d be good on the outside but he’s okay there and about average to above average inside. I overrated him, but his floor was really good which is what I said and he’s proven to be a decent starter and can play 4 spots.
6. Vic Beasley
Drafted #8 to Atlanta
How did I do: B+
How the NFL did: B
I think I got this one more right than the NFL did. He has proven to be a very dynamic pass rusher, and while he’s certainly not a freak or a complete stud he did lead the NFL in sacks one season and is a handful against the pass. He had a bit of a down 2017 season but I think he’s proven he’ll average 10 sacks a year for a while, that’s definitely worth a 6th overall ranking.
7. Devante Parker
Drafted #14 to Miami
How did I do: C-
How the NFL did: C
Well he did get his 5th year option picked up so I didn’t totally butcher this. He’s clearly very talented and realistically this year could be whether we see him as a really good player or not. His qb play has been inconsistent but he shows flashes of brilliance. His injuries and inconsistency means he’s not good yet, but this is his make or break season in Miami.
8. Melvin Gordon
Drafted: #15 to Chargers
How did I do: A
How the NFL did: B+
To rank a running back this high is pretty tough but Gordon has proven to be an absolute beast. I said he was a top ten guy and he’s been that so far in his career. The Chargers got good value there at 15 and I can say I did well with this one.
9. Brandon Scherff
Drafted: #5 to Washington
How did I do: A-
How the NFL did: B+
For him to go 5 was a bit high for me as I had him ranked 9th overall but he really was supposed to be a right tackle. I would give myself an A because he’s a freaking stud guard but i also though he’d play outside. I rated the player right but can’t give myself a total A because he isn’t in a really high leverage spot. Washington may have overdraft a touch but he’s still damn good.
10. Landon Collins
Drafted: #33 to the Giants
How did I do: A+
How the NFL did: D+
The fact he fell out of the first round is a freaking joke. The kid is an All-Pro and a consistent Pro-Bowl caliber player and one of the best in the league in the secondary. It was pretty obvious to me he shouldn’t have fallen out of the top 15 let alone the whole first round. I got this right, the NFL blew this one. Probably one of my top 15 I got it right’s of all time.
11. Marcus Mariota
Drafted: #2 to Tennessee
How did I do: B-
How the NFL did: C
I guess you can qualify him as a “franchise quarterback” but this past season he threw more picks than TD’s and gets nicked up all the time. He’s an okay NFL qb but I thought he’d be better. Taking him second overall wasn’t horrible, he just hasn’t turned into a dominant starting NFL qb yet.
12. Trae Waynes
Drafted: #11 to Minnesota
How did I do: C+
How the NFL did: C+
He’s a starting corner on one of the NFL’s best defenses and he continues to get better. While he’s not great he’s solid and he has a ton of potential. If he continues to improve he’s good here. I think we didn’t do great on this pick, the NFL nor me, but he’s still on the upswing in his career.
13. Todd Gurley
Drafted: #10 to the Rams
How did I do: B+
How did the NFL do: A-
The guy was legitimately in the MVP discussion and was dynamic as a rookie with a slumping sophomore year in there. This system is going to produce video game numbers for Gurley. I had a very good grade on him obviously and him going 10th makes a lot of sense. I did well, the Rams did great.
14. Jameis Winston
Drafted: #1 overall to Tampa Bay
How did I do: B
How did the NFL do: C+
The consensus number one pick was only 14th on my board. I didn’t love him and still think he’s just an average NFL starter. Now that might be worth the number one pick, ahem HELLO Baker Mayfield, but he needs to improve. I had him rated this low and while Tampa won’t say they missed and neither would i, he’s just been okay.
15. Randy Gregory
Drafted: #60 to Dallas
How did I do: F
How did the NFL do: F
He’s a freaking idiot and there’s not much more to say. I get a bigger F but anyone drafting him in the top 2 rounds deserves an F as well. This is the hardest part of my job, I DON’T GET TO TALK TO THESE KIDS. I do this on heresay and a handful of tape… a whif, it happens, particularly when I can’t take skill into account.
16. Shane Ray
Drafted: #23 to Denver
How did I do: C
How did Denver do: C+
Meh. He’s been a decent player for them but certainly not a dynamic game changer. He’s a starting caliber outside linebacker or defensive end who is solid but unspectacular. Definitely a better fit as a 2nd or 3rd round guy but he’s not bad. Getting a decent starter in round 1 is okay, you’re not stoked but it doesn’t kill you.
17. Dante Fowler
Drafted: #3 to Jacksonville
How did I do: B-
How did the NFL do: C-
Fowler is a nice player but he’s certainly not a superstar. The Jags drafted him to be a monster and he’s been pretty good. The injury really hurt him and while you can predict that, Williams or Beasley were rated higher on my board and are a lot better players than Fowler at this point. He’s not bad but he’s certainly not a top 3 player in this class.
18. Ereck Flowers
Drafted: #9 overall to the Giants
How did I do: C-
How did the NFL do: D
I whiffed on this although he wasn’t horrible this past season playing right tackle. He’s not bad over there but I still overvalued him. The Giants REALLY overvalued him though, taking him at 9 overall. He’s been an almost bust, not totally because he can still likely be a decent right tackle in the league but that’s not where you rate someone 18th or take someone 9th.
19. Cameron Erving
Drafted: #19 overall
How did I do: D-
How did the NFL do: D-
He’s not out of the league but I thought Erving was a really quality player and so did the NFL but… we were both wrong. He’s a backup or a bad starter and I honestly thought at worst he was an average to slightly above average NFL linemen. Drafting a backup at 19th overall isn’t a good look. Whoops.
20. Jaelen Strong
Drafted: #70
How did I do: F
How did the NFL do: c
Two whiffs in a row.. ouch. Again though I can’t talk to the kid and I can’t vet them and he had the talent to be a #2 in the NFL the kid is just a moron. Hardest part of what I do. He didn’t have a work ethic and was lazy and therefore turned into a cautionary tale. My bad.
21. Erik Kendricks
Drafted: #45 to Minnesota
How did I do: A-
How did the NFL do: C+
Boom, one of my better evaluations of this draft. Kendricks has racked up over 300 tackles in three seasons becoming a leader on one of the best defenses in the NFL. His versatility and ability to cover make him a really top tier player. Analytics think he’s good not great, but when you watch him play you realize he’s a good one. Triple digit tackler and good against the pass means he’s knocking on the door to elite. I nailed this one.
22. Brett Hundley
Drafted: #147 to Green Bay
How did I do: D
How did the NFL do: B+
I really thought he was a decent starting NFL quarterback and while he wasn’t the worst player in the league this past season taking over for Aaron Rodgers, he surely showed he’s a backup and not a starter. I think he’s a quality backup but I had him graded as a pretty decent starter. I missed, they got it right…
23. Denzel Perryman
Drafted: #48 to the Chargers
How did I do: C-
How did the NFL do: C+
I honestly thought he’d be better but he’s almost an incomplete as he hasn’t played a ton so it’s tough to give an accurate evaluation. He wasn’t bad when he played but I thought he’d be better, he probably should have been ranked in the 50-60 range and I overshot him, but when healthy he provides something. Meh not my best.
24. Eddie Goldman
Drafted: #39 to the Bears
How did I do: B-
How did the NFL do: B
He’s a pretty good player. I think I overvalued him a little bit but the Bears got a nice versatile piece up front. He’s been in the mid to high 70s and consistently a solid piece from the minute he got there. Could have done better could have done worse.
25. Shaq Thompson
Drafted: #25
How did I do: A-
How did the NFL do: A-
He’s a pretty damn good player who went in the exact right spot to the exact right team. I think this was pretty spot on by both me and the NFL in terms of valuing him.
26. La’el Collins
Drafted: Undrafted
How did I do: B+
How did the NFL do: F
He’s a really good player and it’s hard to fault the NFL because well, the kid had a weird situation happen before the draft. That said, I think if the draft were to go over again he’d likely be taken somewhere around right here as someone who can be a good guard or an okay tackle.
27. Dorial Green-Beckham
Drafted: #40 to Tennessee
How did I do: D-
How did the NFL do: D
My 3rd on this draft where I can’t say it enough, I need to know more about these guys in order to make informed decisions. His off the field stuff was well documented but I had to give him a ranking. Honestly I think it makes more sense to not draft these guys than to draft them. Just not even worth the upside.
28. Benardrick McKinney
Drafted: #43 to Houston
How did I do: A-
How did the NFL do: B
He’s a really good player and this is about where he should have gone in the draft. I think I did really well here and the NFL was a tick behind, letting him slide about 15-20 spots too far.
29. Maxx Williams
Drafted: #55 to Baltimore
How did I do: C-
How did the NFL do: C+
He can’t stay healthy. He’s a pretty decent player when healthy but he can’t stay there. The Ravens probably reached a touch on him when they did but I missed because of health and I overvalued him by probably 7 points or so on my scale. Injury dude.
30. Bud Dupree
Drafted: #22 to Pittsburgh
How did I do: B-
How did the NFL do: C
He’s not a bad player and shows flashes of being really good but he’s not consistent enough. I overvalued him a little, the NFL overvalued him a bit more than i did. He’s not a horrible first round pick but he’s not a good one either.
31. Malcolm Brown
Drafted: #32 to New England
How did I do: B
How did the NFL do: B
We may have both overvalued him a bit but not too much. He’s a solid rotational defensive line piece for a team that utilizes him well. Good solid one here.
32. Clive Warford
Drafted: #68 to Oakland
How did I do: C-
How did the NFL do: B+
He should have gone around pick 80 so the NFL valued him correctly and I overshot it here by a ways. He’s still in the NFL and he’s not horrible but I overshot this one. He’s adequate on an nfl roster and I thought he was a starter.
OTHER FIRST ROUND PICKS:
#16 overall pick Kevin Johnson to Houston
My rank: #44
He showed some promise but last year was atrocious and can’t stay healthy. He’s got upside but needs improvement.
NFL grade: C-
My grade: B
#17 overall pick Arik Armstead to San Francisco
My rank: #33
He’s been okay but he’s not great. They drafted players at his position and are taking some reps away but he’s not a bad player.
NFL grade: C
My grade: B-
#18 overall pick Marcus Peters to KC
My rank: #40
He’s been maybe the most terrifying player to play against in the NFL in terms of taking the football away. While he’ll give up big plays he’ll also make some and has been very good. I thought he’d be good, he’s been really good.
NFL Grade: A
My grade: B
#20 overall pick Nelson Agholar to Philadelphia
My rank: #66
He’s been an average NFL slot receiver and a below average #2. He picked it up this year but he’s producing like a 3rd or 4th rounder. I gave him a 3rd round grade and that’s what he is.
NFL Grade: C-
My grade: A
#21 overall pick Cedrick Ogbuehi to Cincinnati
My rank: #51
He’s someone who isn’t a good NFL offense lineman. He’ll likely stick around the league as a backup but he’s a 4th-5th round guy in terms of value going 21st.
NFL Grade: D
My grade: C+
#24 overall pick D.J. Humphries to Arizona
My rank: #38
He’s gotten better but injuries have really hurt him. It looks like when he plays he’s starting to figure it out a little bit and can play on both sides. That said it still looks like a first round pick was a bit too high for him.
NFL Grade: C+
My grade: B
#26 overall pick Breshad Perriman to Baltimore
My rank: #36
Neither of us did well here but the Ravens in the first did worse. He can’s stay healthy and while it’s tough to judge a pick on that, that’s why I do this recap.
NFL Grade: D-
My grade: D+
#27 overall pick Byron Jones to Dallas
My rank: #58
He’s been a lot better than what I thought he’d be but he certainly isn’t a superstar. He’s a really solid player and I think Dallas is happy they got him where they did even if they overpaid just a touch.
NFL Grade: A-
My grade: C
#28 overall pick Laken Tomlinson to Detroit
My rank: #52
I thought Tomlison was an NFL starter but nothing more and Detroit thought he was a stud guard but instead he’s been a disappointment. Not a good pick, although my ranking was significantly lower here.
NFL grade: D
My grade: C-
#29 overall pick Philip Dorsett to Indianapolis
My rank: #102
The Colts were so bad at player selection and this was just another one of those moves. I hit this one I think on the head and they just were so bad at what they did.
NFL grade: D-
My grade: A
#30 overall pick Damarious Randall to Green Bay
My rank: #98
Again this move made no sense. The team drafted a kid that’s clearly a safety to play corner in a scheme that didn’t work for him. Such a dumb move. I feel like I was good here too.
NFL Grade: D
My grade: A-
#31 overall pick Stephone Anthony to New Orleans
My rank: #99
Anthony is about what i thought he’d be a borderline starter, a good backup and a nice special teams player. New Orleans thought he was worth a first round pick.
NFL Grade: D
My grade: A-
OTHERS:
David Johnson, RB Cardinals
My rank: 35th
NFL selection: 86
I win this one by a ways
Jamison Crowder, WR Redskins
My rank: 46
NFL selection: 105
He’s an absolutely elite NFL slot guy. I’m proud of this one too.
Tevin Coleman, RB Falcons
My rank: 45
NFL selection: 73
I think I was close to right on with this one.
I didn’t add up these last selections because well they weren’t either A. Top 32 picks by me, although I would have loved to have claimed D. Johnson or B. Top 32 picks in the actual draft.
OVERALL RESULTS:
When I figure out a “GPA” based on those picks which total 44 I get the following totals:
NFL:
85 grade point average points on 44 selections totaling 1.93 points which is in fact almost perfectly average for NFL draft rankings, a typical year.
Tyler Hague: Granted I’m biased but please feel free to yell or make fun of my rankings if you want.
109.5 grade point average points on 44 selections totaling 2.49 points per selection.
Conclusion:
This means my average selection is 29% more effective on top tier picks than the NFL during the 2015 NFL draft. I’ll take it. Who’s hiring?
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