This time of year is ripe with teams overpaying for second tier players and this year was no exception. It’s pretty clear that 32 out of 32 teams would rather build through the draft and extend their own. It’s a much cheaper way of doing business and in the only major professional American sports league with a hard salary cap, you have to be prudent with your financial decisions. That said most of the time when you hear news of a deal you’ll get complete sticker shock because people don't understand that unlike baseball and basketball, none of these contracts are fully guaranteed money, (Kirk Cousins aside). Also, the salary cap hit for these deals varies widely as there are numerous different ways to help create cap space each year, a notable move such as New Orleans always kicking the can down the road with the Drew Brees contract, or converting money into signing bonus to spread it out over multiple seasons. All that said, these are the 6 worst contracts and decisions in free agency thus far, and the 6 best, I’d love to hear some debate on why I’m wrong. Have at it!
WORST:
6. Zadarius Smith to Green Bay, 4 years and 66 million.
It’s not that I don’t like Smith, he’s a good player but this is the equivalent of giving a nice solid player for superstar money. His deal is really more like 45 million over 3 years with a very likely 5 million dollar cap hit for year 4 where he isn’t on the team. It’s an obscene amount of money and he will likely need to come up with around 12-13 sacks per season and at least 50 pressures to come close to justifying the numbers. I like the Preston Smith move, but with two draft picks in the first round in a draft that is totally loaded with pass rushers, this seemed like an overpay for Green Bay in a big way.
5. Justin Coleman to Detroit 4 years 36 million
It’s not that he’s a bad player but he’s not anywhere near worth 9 million per season or 17 million guaranteed at signing. While i like the guy and think he’s solid he’s not that good and you have other slot corners available for similar or less money who have proven to be better players. This seems like a massive overpay for familiarity at a position that is a lot like relief pitching in baseball where you aren’t totally sure what you’re going to get year to year. I could see this being a really bad looking signing in two or three seasons.
4. Kareem Jackson to Denver 3 years 33 million
I’m a really big Jackson fan watching him play every game but 1 for Houston over his career. This past season was clearly his best and while he did play occasionally at safety he mostly played corner and did a fantastic job. The issue with the contract is that they paid him 2 years and 23 million fully guaranteed at age 31. The odds are highly in favor of last season being by far his best with a bunch of okay and adequate seasons as the norm. Yes he offers versatility but that’s a TON of money to pay for someone who likely peaked and is now on the downside. Another weird move by Elway.
3. Golden Tate to New York Giants, 4 years and 37.5 million
It’s not that I dont’ like Tate, I really do. I think he’s still a good football player although I believe his best years are behind him. What I don’t understand is that you ship Beckham out of town and already have a wonderful middle of the field weapon in Engram and a great RAC player in Barkley and you essentially get redundant. You also end up paying a good chunk of money to an aging player, 31, with a roster that should be in transition when you honestly can’t really believe you can compete in 2019. The Giants don’t have a plan and after this season Gettleman will get fired like he should.
2. Bobby Hart to Cincinnati, 3 years 16.5 million
Bobby Hart, who is one of the worst linemen in the NFL over the past few years got 5.5 million per season. He also got a guaranteed 5.5 million and dead cap hit if they cut him after year one, and he got this early in the free agency period. There are still high quality linemen available who can play in a pinch for half of what the Bengals gave Hart. This was a bizarre move.
- Trent Brown to Oakland, 4 years and 66 million
This is for all intents and purposes a 2 year 37 million dollar contract give or take but that’s freaking ridiculous. He was only okay last season in New England and his analytics and the tape bear that out. That’s with the greatest line coach in NFL history and the guy who gets the ball out quicker than anyone else in NFL history. This was simply a really bad decision 9 minutes into free agency. You couple that with the fact that your organization drafted Kolten Miller super high in the first round last year and took a 3rd rounder on a tackle as well. You needed a tackle upgrade i get it, but you make Trent Brown the highest paid tackle ever? Worst move of free agency.
Honorable Mention:
Kwon Alexander - really a 1 year 14 million dollar deal if you look at how the contract is structured.
CJ Mosely - that’s a stupid amount of money for a really good player at a position you were already pretty good at.
Ja’Wuan James - seems like a lot of money for an average right tackle but when you whiff in the draft and free agency you get desperate.
Billy Turner - that’s a big overpay for an okay guard and swing tackle. It’s nice to have depth but I’m not sure how they are gonna make this work on the salary cap.
Best moves of free agency:
6. Trey Flowers to Detroit 5 years 90 million
I get that everyone is going to say this is a massive overpayment for a guy who only averages 7 sacks per season. He’s literally a perfect fit as he’s always played in this system, the last two years of the contract are not going to be played out at those cap numbers, and he’s able to play all over the line for versatility. It was a lot of money but Detroit had adequate cap space and needed to make a splash, I actually thought it was a really solid move for the usually reserved Bob Quinn.
5. Shaq Barrett to Tampa 1 year 4 million, Jason Verett to SF 1 year 3 million, Bradley Roby to Houston 1 year 10 million, Darryl Williams to Carolina 1 year 6 million, Ronald Darby 1 year 6.5 million to Philly
The one year prove it contract are perfect free agency moves in that they are high upside and low risk for the team that does the deal. Barrett fills a huge hole that Tampa has and I think it was an absolute steal as he was worth at least 50% more than that. Verett is a stud if he’s healthy but he hasn’t been healthy in 3 years. Roby is a speedy corner that Houston needed desperately coming off a bad year, and Williams was a 2nd team all pro coming off a full season off. Each of these 4 teams got a really good potential steal while these guys build up their value. The Darby deal was arguably the best one here though, as he was clearly the best corner on the market and ended up getting a cheap deal when he should have gotten even more than Roby.
4. Beasley, Brown, and Morse to Buffalo
All 3 of these deals are good team deals and fill major positions of need for Buffalo. The interior of the line was not good last season and when healthy Morse is a very good pivot. Beasley gives the Bills a reliable pass catcher and someone who is adept at moving the chains. Brown gives Josh Allen someone to pair with last year’s revelation Robert Foster as a burner. Buffalo’s offseason plan was brilliantly executed and while they paid a decent amount for all 3, cumulatively they didn’t overpay.
3. Tevin Coleman to San Francisco 2 years 8.5 million
I totally understand that the 49ers didn’t need Coleman but he is a perfect fit for Shanahan’s offense as he’s already been dynamic in that role. You combine that with the fact that Coleman got around HALF of what his market should have been and you end up with an absolute steal for the 9ers. Look I get that you signed McKinnon to that big deal last season but Coleman is a home run hitter and a dynamic pass catcher who excels in this scheme and you got him for 50 cents on the dollar. Just a steal for Lynch and company.
2. Adrian Amos to Green Bay for 4 years 36 million.
With the deals that Mathieu and Thomas got, getting an exceptional solid and reliable player like Amos for 9 million per year was about a 30% discount. One of the better players at the position for the past 4 years and a guy who is well under 30, you get a very good player heading into his prime without injury worry at a position of need. While the Packers probably overpaid their other 3 free agents, Amos at this price was a bargain.
- Matt Paradis to Carolina for 3 years 29 million
Paradis is one of the top 3 centers in football and, even though he’s coming off an injury, he plays at close to an All-Pro caliber level when healthy. Given that Morse had already signed an 11 million dollar per season contract before Paradis had signed, and that Morse had failed to stay healthy consistently and was rated significantly behind Paradis, this contract looks parse in comparison. Paradis was one of the 6 to 8 best free agents of this offseason, and the Panthers had a glaring hole at one of the most important positions with the retirement of Ryan Kalil and instead of imploding and overpaying like the Saints were forced to with the Unger retirement, Paradis gives them an actual big upgrade. This was the best signing of the offseason and it could lead to bigger things in 2019 for the Panthers.
Honorable mention:
Steven Nelson 3 years 25.5 million to Pitt - I feel like getting a ball hawk for less than 10 per year and locking him up was a good move for the Steelers
Jordan Hicks 4 years 34 million to Arizona - Mosley gets 17 a year and Hicks gets half of that? I’d rather have hicks for 8.5 than Mosley for 17 no question.
Bryce Callahan 3 years 21 million to Denver - rebuild in that secondary that now looks pretty stout, 7 per year for Callahan when Coleman who isn’t as good got 9, and Tavon Young got similar, this was a prudent move for Elway.
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