We are almost a full season into the 2021 NFL season and we're starting to see some trends in drafts. I don't usually judge drafts until after 3 full seasons away from them, as then players can develop, you can see who has become quality starters, role players, stars, and busts. However, it's always interesting to take a look back one year later and see how teams did and how those decisions are shaping franchises moving forward.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence
This pick was a no brainer and the right selection despite Lawrence's struggles. The reason he's played poorly is because Urban Meyer is horrible and was subsequently let go. The scary part for the organization is if he developed poor habits and the lack of development throughout the year leads to a poor career. It's too early to say but the real mistake here wasn't taking Lawrence, a 99 rated potential star, but in hiring Meyer.
2. New York Jets - Zach Wilson
This one isn't looking as clear cut. He hasn't played well at all, in fact all the quarterbacks who have played for the Jets have looked better than him, and that's a scary thing. There is some development that we expected and needed to see from him, but this hasn't gone well. I might not be in full blown panic mode if I'm a Jets fan, but honestly this hasn't looked like a good pick. He is the player in this draft who looks most like he could be a bust through the first year.
3. San Francisco 49ers - Trey Lance
This is obviously a N/A grade at this point. No real reps to speak of, but that was the plan all along.
4. Atlanta Falcons - Kyle Pitts
Pitts is one of two players I thought had the best chance to be a Hall of Famer in this class, between he and Penei Sewell and I don't think he's disappointed in year one. Coach Smith was figuring out how to utilize him early in the season but he has a chance now to go over 1,000 yards as a rookie tight end. The Falcons are still struggling in the redzone but Pitts will eventually begin to dominate there too. He's a really good player already, and will be a complete superstar by year 3.
5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja'Marr Chase
I'm strongly on record as saying this should have been Penei Sewell, not that I don't think Chase is tremendous, I just think with Higgins and Boyd and a deep WR class you could have taken the best tackle prospect I've ever scouted and still gotten a good player in round 2. Instead they went with Chase who looks tremendous minus the drop problems that are starting to come up each and every week. In round 2 they had to take a massive reach and drafted Jackson Carman, someone who probably should have gone 40 picks later, and he can't crack a poor interior OL starting lineup. The team could have taken Sewell, and later added another piece to the receiving corps like Rondale Moore or added a stud tight end in Pat Freiermuth. Instead Burrow has been sacked a league leaading 41 times, has tossed 14 INT, and has a QBR under 50. Chase is extremely talented, I stand by the fact they should have drafted Sewell.
6. Miami Dolphins - Jaylen Waddle
I wasn't in love with this pick when Miami did it, but I was wrong. Not only is his speed a threat every play, he's an adept route runner, a reliable target, and can work every level of the field. He looks like a special player.
7. Detroit Lions - Penei Sewell
Superstar, slam dunk, freak, maybe All-Pro as a rookie.
8. Carolina Panthers - Jaycee Horn
I would have taken Surtain as I had a higher grade on him, but Horn looked like a potential lock down CB1 before he got hurt. This looks like a really impressive player. That said, with how bad the OL has looked Slater probably should have been the pick in hindsight.
9. Denver Broncos - Patrick Surtain
It was a strange pick at the time because they could have taken Justin Fields or Mac Jones, instead they went with Surtain. Now I think it was absolutely the right pick, no matter how Jones has played. Surtain is going to be a top elite tier 1 corner in the NFL and he's close to that already. Great player
10. Philadelphia Eagles - DeVonta Smith
Considering how difficult it's been at times for Philly to pass the ball, Smith nearing 1000 yards as a rookie has to be considered a high success. He looks like he's going to be a really impactful player in the league. One more season and 10-15 more pounds on him and he may really make a year 2 leap.
11. Chicago Bears - Justin Fields
I still think this was the right move, even giving up a first rounder next year. The issue this team has is that they have poor line play, and getting rid of Charles Leno and then drafting someone who think maybe could kick to the left side instead was dumb. They have the worst center in the NFL and Matt Nagy is not good, not good at all. This could set Fields back 2 full seasons, and it's a similar problem to what Lawrence is going through in Jacksonville, the next coach will determine his fate. That said he hasn't looked great when he's played unless it's scrambling where his speed is evident, they have to help him out.
12. Dallas Cowboys - Micah Parsons
I was scared of him because of some maturity issues that we read about. That said, he'd get my vote for not just DROY but for DPOY. He looks like he may be the best defensive player in the NFL.
13. Los Angeles Chargers - Rashawn Slater
I was meh on this pick, although I totally understood going out and getting a left tackle. Turns out this dude is really really good. Looks like the Chargers have their QB and LT of the future, that's a great way to start.
14. New York Jets - Alijah Vera-Tucker
Stupid pick. He's been okay for them, not great, but decent. Taking a guard 14th in the draft is just stupid unless it's an all time superstar player and your team is already loaded. For positional value and what else was on the board, this was dumb, and while he's been decent, it hasn't played out where he looks like he can be a future star.
15. New England Patriots - Mac Jones
He was a perfect fit for their system, and he's played exactly how you would want him to. He went to the best situation of all the guys for early success, Lance I think will be successful in the Bay as well. I think his being this elite dominant player is way overblown but he's a great game manager for a coach that preaches that. Great scheme fit and he's played good football.
16. Arizona Cardinals - Zaven Collins
Arizona wants to bring him on slowly like they did with Simmons, and that's what they're doing. He's a bigger part of their future plans than their present.
17. Las Vegas Raiders - Alex Leatherwood
Bad. This is what happens when you draft a third round player in round 1
18. Miami Dolphins - Jaelen Phillips
This dude has the juice. They wanted an athletic pass rusher so they went with the guy with the biggest upside and he can absolutely play. Looks like he's going to turn into a stud.
19. Washington Football Team - Jamin Davis
This was not a smart pick, and it looks worse now. They had serious needs on offense, and instead decided to go with another non premium position. He's also looked bad when he has played. Whiff so far.
20. New York Giants - Kadarius Toney
When he's played he looks like he will be a complete difference maker. That said with that OL, why go with this guy and not a tackle. Darrisaw has been hurt but looks like he could be a good NFL starting tackle, seemed weird, although I love them trading back and adding an extra 1. Just needs to stay healthy.
21. Indianapolis Colts - Kwity Paye
He just needs more reps but he's already shown what he can do. He is a great fit for that 4 man system and he plays physically when he gets out there. More reps and he'll continue to improve.
22. Tennessee Titans - Caleb Farley
Played in two games and is on IR. Came in with injury concerns, they obviously got worse.
23. Minnesota Vikings - Christian Darrisaw
He looks like the real deal at LT but he can't stay healthy. If he can get on the field he looks like he may end up being the franchise LT.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris
I get that they needed a bell cow back and that's what Tomlin likes, but taking a RB in round 1 is just bad football business. He's been a solid player, and looks reliable, but don't you think that team would rather have Greg Newsome, or any of the elite pass rushers who ended up going later? Or perhaps even an offensive lineman who can play his position at a decent level? Solid player, bad value.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Travis Etienne
What a dumb pick. I LOVE Etienne, but you take a running back in round 1 when your roster is littered with holes. Your best offensive player was your running back as well. Shows how dysfunctional and poor the Jags franchise is.
26. Cleveland Browns - Greg Newsome II
I thought this was a bit of reach but taking a good player at a premium position is never a bad decision. I would have looked at WR here but Newsome has looked like a very good player so can't fault them and I'm sure Cleveland is happy with that pick.
27. Baltimore Ravens - Rashod Bateman
It took him a while to get on the field and he's had some injury issues but when he's played he's played well. He sure looks like a good scheme fit and a good player out there. He's coming along strong and is going to be a solid piece for that Baltimore offense.
28. New Orleans Saints - Payton Turner
Weird pick. I know he was a fast riser in the process but felt like quite the reach. Then he got injured and while he certainly flashed, the team not taking a corner felt strange and it looks like the wrong move at this point in time.
29. Green Bay Packers - Eric Stokes
This was a clear team drafting for need to fill a hole and it turned out PERFECTLY. Stokes looks like the absolute real deal at corner and pairing him with Jaire Alexander may end up giving this team in the next 2 years the best corner duo in the NFL. One of the drafts' best selections.
30. Buffalo Bills - Gregory Rousseau
He's starting to get the game figured out a bit and in a heavy defensive line rotation he's shown flashes of quality play. He's been solid against the run and has picked up 3 sacks, 6 TFL, and 17 combined pressures. They aren't wow numbers, but I think it's encouraging overall.
31. Baltimore Ravens - Odafe Oweh
He's been really good and is an absolute perfect fit in this teams' defensive scheme. There's definitely a chance he turns into a double digit sack guy down the road while bringing energy and good run defense. He's put up 22 pressures while playing the majority of the snaps every game for Baltimore, he's got 5 sacks as well.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Joe Tryon-Soyinka
Next year he'll be a full time starter as this was a growth year for him but he looks like he could be a really impressive player. In limited action he flashes every time I put on the tape.
OTHERS
* Javonte Williams, 35 to Denver, much better value than Etienne or Harris and he looks to be better than Harris and obviously healthier than Etienne.
*Jevon Holland, 36 to Miami, is already playing at a super high level and paired with Phillips and Waddle may make this the best overall draft class in 2021.
* Christian Barmore, 38 to New England, it's a tough transition to DT in the NFL but he's been impressive in the Patriot front and could end up being a ten year starter there.
*Trevon Moehrig, 43 to Las Vegas, He was a mid first round talent who fell here and now he looks to be a solid centerfielder for the Raiders with only 12 passes completed against him all season and 6 passes defensed.
*Azeez Ojulari, 50 to New York Giants, He's pushing for double digit sacks as a rookie. Parsons is getting all the love and the other first rounders are more well known, but Ojulari has been exceptionally productive. He fell to round 2 due to some injury concerns that turns out weren't concerns at all. Looks like a steal.
*Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, 52 to Cleveland, in every draft good players drop into round two for stupid reasons and they end up being stars. He may end up being a top 5 player in this entire draft.
*Pat Freirmuth, 55 to Pittsburgh, he's playing high level football in a position it's tough to transition. I think he's going to be a really solid 10 year pro.
*Nick Bolton, 58 to KC, I though this was a reach and kind of a meh pick but he's a machine out there and gets better and better each week, looks like he might be a great snag.
*Creed Humphrey, 63 to KC, arguably the best pick in this years' draft. I'm the only scout on the planet that values center more than tackle and if he isn't the best center in the league right now he's going to be in that conversation soon.
*Davis Mills, 67 to Houston, Compare his stats to Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields and tell me Houston shouldn't be pleased with his play. He only had 11 starts at Stanford, they may have found something there in round 3.
*Michael Carter, 107 to NYJ, This is where RB value is found best in the draft. Carter is going to be RB1 in NY for a long time and he has some Austin Ekeler type possibilities to his game.
*Nate Hobbs, 167 to the Raiders, PFF thinks he's the GOAT but in more reality he's been a really high quality slot corner this season. With Trevon Moehrig, they have added two really good DBs in one draft. His passer rating against is just 85 and he's given up 0 TD this season.
*Elijah Mitchell, 194 to SF, Kyle Shanahan drafting a perfect scheme fit stud running back late... what do ya know. He's perfect for that team and looks the part.
*Trey Smith, 226 to KC, Smith was a first round talent until blood clots in his lungs caused a massive drop. He has played really good football for KC throughout the season and his 5 star pedigree has shown out. Top 5 pick in this draft.
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