I've decided I'm going to officially NOT do Mock drafts anymore on what I think will happen except once per year before the draft. From now on I'm ONLY doing mock drafts on what I WOULD DO. Gotta put your money where your mouth is. We're super early in the 2023 season but it seems like a fitting time to start to work on this. Plus, I'm bored at work. All pick slots are courtesy of Tankathon.
1. Chicago Bears - QB Caleb Williams, USC
They absolutely can not trade this pick again for obvious reasons. Williams is going to be my 2nd highest rated QB prospect ever and a deserving 99 rated player. He's a franchise changer for a team that hasn't had a good quarterback for decades.
2. Denver Broncos - QB Drake Maye, UNC
Russell Wilson is no longer a viable NFL starting QB on a contending team. He's so stiff and robotic in his movements and his leadership leaves much to be desired. On top of it, he makes bad mistakes too often and without his ability to create with his legs he is now a low end starter. Denver is burdened with his contract but it doesn't mean they shouldn't take Maye who is a dynamic athlete and someone who can put up points in bunches. He's got ideal size, plus accuracy, and is electric with his legs.
3. TRADE! Chicago Bears - WR Marvin Harrison Jr, Ohio State
The Bears give up a 2nd rounder, a 4th rounder, and pick 4 to move up one spot to take the best WR prospect I've graded. Harrison Jr is a perfect WR prospect and pairing him with Caleb Williams immediately changes this entire Bears organization.
4. Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State
Brutal spot and they'd look multiple times to trade back but I think while this is an excellent QB draft there's a good drop off after the first two. They don't need a LT or TE so they decide to take an edge rusher here as Danielle Hunter has been injured and may leave this offseason and Zadarius Smith is on the back 9 of his career. Verse hasn't been the game changer that I thought he'd be this year but he has plenty of talent and is at a premium position. Minnesota would LOVE a QB here but couldn't find a trade partner and the value wasn't quite there. Adding a 2nd and 4th to move back one spot makes sense.
5. Los Angeles Chargers - CB Kool Aid McKinstry, Alabama
McKinstry is exceptional and the team has been looking for a long term answer at CB for as long as I can remember. He's got ideal size for a corner and can play both man and zone. After the disaster that is JC Jackson, the Chargers find their long term answer at outside corner.
6. Las Vegas Raiders - TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
The Raiders are likely going to have to blow this thing up in the offseason so this could look very different but I think Bowers could be a complete difference maker for this team. They need help along their offensive line and could certainly look at a RT here or converting Alt or Fashanu to RT but instead they take an exceptional TE prospect who could control the middle of the field and be a third down conversion machine.
7. Arizona Cardinals (From Houston) - CB Kalen King, Penn State
King is a beast and while he hasn't been super clean this season, he's still a dynamic player. The lack of cornerbacks has held Arizona back for years and while I'd look to move on from Kyler at this point he's still a member of the organization. Jonathan Gannon made his hay as a coordinator with elite cornerback play, he gets that started by adding King.
8. Tennessee Titans - OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
This is a dream scenario for Tennessee who is so bad on their offensive line it's egregious. They tried to make it work by overpaying for LT Andre Dillard this offseason and he's a square peg in a round hole there so this is assuming a reload of their offensive philosophy. Alt is as polished and consistent of a player as you'll find at LT and maybe this means they kick Dillard inside or out to RT or whatever, but it doesn't matter, they have to improve up front.
9. TRADE! New York Jets - OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State
Bengals receive pick 11, a 3rd round pick, and a 6th round pick in 2025.
The Jets are hoping to get A-Aron back from injury next season and he seems determined to play but regardless of what happens under center, they have to protect and run block better than they have the past few seasons. The Jets movement scheme up front would be perfect for Fashanu who is an athletic freak and could give the team a huge upgrade at the LT position. He needs technique work and his ultra wide stance is a bit offputting but a lot of PSU OL have similar technical oddities. He's someone who could be a game changer for the Jets.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars - EDGE Dallas Turner, Albama
Turner has been an impressive part of a very unimpressive and underwhelming Alabama season so far. While he's not in the same breath as Will Anderson, there's a very good chance he goes in the top 10 by season's end. The Jags currently for some Uknown reason haven't signed stud pass rusher Josh Allen to an extension, but even if they have, Turner is an ugprade for a team that stupidly passed on Aiden Hutchinson two seasons ago to take a huge project in Walker. It has not paid off.
11. TRADE! Cincinnati Bengals - DL Jer'zhan Newton, Illinois
This dude is just a monster. The Bengals are likely to lose their interior star DJ Reader this offseason and while they could look at RT here, they can't keep just pouring resources into their OL every season. Coaching needs to improve and so does scheme at some point. They play in a division that wants to run the ball constantly, adding a superstar interior player is the best fit.
12. New England Patriots - QB Shadeur Sanders, Colorado
I'm not completely sold on Sanders at this point but there are a few things he does very well. He has a lightning quick release, he doesn't turn the football over, and he processes quickly. He has an 11/1 TD to INT ratio and while Oregon ate his lunch - he had no chance in that football game. He's got good size, is very accurate, and is a quick processor. Mac Jones certainly isn't the answer for the Patriots and Sanders has significantly more upside.
13. Arizona Cardinals - WR Malik Nabers, LSU
The Cardinals continue to try to add here by getting another weapon. Nabers has been dynamic for LSU this season, putting gup over 500 yards and 5 TD through 4 games. Their OL has been very good so far this season and their rushing attack has been imprssive, but they need more weapons and Nabers could be a very good NFL player.
14. New York Giants - OT JC Latham, Alabama
Yes they have Evan Neal and Andrew Thomas but their guard play has been unbelievably bad this season, and last year it was rated 31st in the NFL. This year I'm guessing it's the NFL's worst. You could move Evan Neal inside to guard as he's struggled mightily at tackle in the NFL or have Latham play inside for a major boost to the line, but ultimately this team has to improve on its OL or Daniel Jones will never have a chance.
15. LA Rams - OT Graham Barton, Duke
The Rams drafting in the first round is rare, very rare indeed. Barton is an athletic offensive tackle who could help a poor offensive line. Alaric Jackson is not the long term answer on the OL and while Matthew Stafford's career is winding down, whoever takes snaps for this team has to have better OL play in front of him. Barton is athletic, with good size, and would fit the offensive scheme very well at a premium position.
16. TRADE! Washington Commanders - QB Bo Nix, Oregon
New Orleans receives: pick 22 & 53
The Commanders are behind QB Sam Howell and he's shown a lot of positive things but he also just tossed 4 INT and it's a new ownership group, they may want their own guy. Nix has turned his career completely around since going to Oregon. He always had immense physical tools but he pairs it now by taking care of the ball in a big way and distributing the ball quickly. The Oregon offense doesn't have a ton of progression reads so there may be a bit of a learning curve but Nix has the tools and IQ to improve quickly. The Saints have a good roster but no round 2 pick, so they add one by moving back.
17. Tampa Bay Bucs - WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State
Egbuka is a stud, and while he's overshadowed by his superstar teammate he's a really good prospect. The Bucs are likely not going to have Mike Evans after this season so they need a replacement. The Bucs are definitely looking QB here but I can't find one in this scenario I love as much as I'd love giving Godwin a running mate again. Egbuka is a really high end player and keeps the Bucs WR corps a strength.
18. Dallas Cowboys - DT Leonard Taylor III, Miami
The Cowboys defense is generally very good, but they struggle and have continued to struggle against the run the past few years. They are incredibly quick but lose against teams that pound them into the ground and Leonard Taylor could help fix that. He's an impressive player who thrives at making plays in the backfield and creating havoc.
19. Green Bay Packers - WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
I know they've been slowly adding to the WR room but it's time they actually go get a WR. Doubs has proven to be a nice piece, and Christian Watson is a freak in H-W-S but doesn't do everything well. Coleman gives them yet another weapon and is the big bodied guy in this draft. At 6'4 he has 6 receiving TD's through 4 weeks and could help improve in the redzone.
20. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) - WR Rome Odunze, Washington
The Texans have gotten huge production from Nico Collins and third rounder Tank Dell has proven himself through three weeks to be a steal - I'm VERY happy to take the L there. But the team could use one more guy. Robert Woods has played well through 3 weeks but he's toward the end of his career and Odunze has been elite for the Huskies this season. He can run a variety of routes and has elite size. The Texans are certainly going to look edge, but I believe with the league's most cap space in 2024 they can address that there but getting a player of Odunze's caliber at WR is going to be tough unless you use the draft.
21. Buffalo Bills - OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
He's raw as can be and still doens't have many reps but he has an ULTRA high ceiling. The Bills need to continue to add around Josh Allen in terms of helping him in the run game and Mims could end up being a superstar. It's a big risk pick but the reward could be exceptional.
22.TRADE! Atlanta Falcons - QB Riley Leonard, Duke
New Orleans receives: pick 27, 3rd round pick, 6th round pick in 2025
He's a really damn good player and does a good job of taking care of the football. He's been coached very well, runs the ball at a high level but has the ability to make a ton of high quality throws. Despite being with a team that simply doesn't have the weapons that other teams has, he continues to lead Duke to wins. He ran for 13 TDs last season and already has 4 through 4 weeks this year. He's a very high end version of Desmond Ridder and could give this team an element with his arm that Ridder simply hasn't shown himself capable of yet.
23. Seattle Seahawks - EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA
A big physical edge rusher who fits the Seahawks version of guy off the edge. Seattle loves to get guys in advantageous positions up front and Latu has all the tools you'd look for. It's a well put together team so you just want to keep adding pieces to an already ascending roster. Latu isn't all tools though, he has been productive as well, putting up 4 sacks and a pick through 4 weeks.
24. Baltimore Ravens - CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
Really good cornerback here and the Ravens seem to always need extra defenders. DeJean has impressive size and can play zone or man defense. He likely won't last this long on draft day but has a chance to be a very high level CB1. Pairing him with Humphreys in this secondary with Kyle Hamilton gives the Ravens one of the best in football.
25. Detroit Lions - WR Johnny Wilson, Florida State
The Lions have been very efficient offensively the past two seasons and definitely could look to go defense here, particularly in their secondary but they really do miss having an outside WR. Insert Johnny Wilson here who at a ridiculous 6'7 gives them something nobody else does, a gigantic target. Wilson has averaged over 19 yards per catch the past two seasons and while he's certainly a one trick pony - it's a damn good trick. Wilson paired with a maybe, potentially at some point, Jameson Williams and Amon Ra. St Brown is lethal.
26. Kansas City Chiefs - DL Kris Jenkins, Michigan
The Chiefs, somehow, for some reason, are looking like they are going to let Chris Jones go. If they do, there is nobody that can replace him and he'll likely get close to $30m per seaosn in the open market. That sasid, Kris Jenkins is an intriguing prospect who has looked elite this season for the Wolverines. KC has a pretty good roster and Brett Veach is elite so he'll find someone good but Jenkins could be a nice piece to step into that role for the Chiefs.
27. New Orleans - TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, Texas
The Saints trade back twice in this exercise and add 4 additional picks. I don't think many people looking at the Saints from afar realize how solid this roster is. They are good at WR, good on the OL - although they've played poorly this year, and have Derek Carr at QB. On Defense, Cam Jordan is long in the tooth but they have Granderson signed to a long term deal and 1st rounder Bryan Bresee along their DL. Werner is a good up and coming LB and Lattimore and Taylor have been very good at corner. They have needs at safety and corner but really are set up very well defensively. They could look at a few spots here but instead go with another offensive weapon. Sanders is a freak athlete for his size and this year is averaging 22 yards per catch at 256 pounds.
28. Indianapolis Colts - CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
I haven't done a ton of diving into corners so far this season but the Colts can't feel good about the corners on their roster headed into 2024. Wiggins is a big guy at 6'2 and 185 pounds and gives them a type of player and a talent they don't currently have on the team.
29. Pittsburgh Steelers - QB Quinn Ewers, Texas
I'm not a huge Ewers guy compared to most but he's still a good prospect. He's on the smaller side and was wildly inconsistent in 2022 but also put up really impressive tape situationally. He's cleaned up the turnovers this year and really looks like he's taken a leap. The coaches said he improved his work habits and has become more serious and through 4 weeks hasn't thrown a pick while beating Alabama. He's got good arm talent and at times is able to layer the ball extremely well. He's a pretty big upgrade over Kenny Pickett who looks like a AAAA player to me - someone who is too good to be a backup but probably not good enough to be a starter on a good team. Ewers is an upgrade.
30. TRADE! Minnesota Vikings - QB Michael Penix, Washington
Eagles receive: pick 34, and 4th round pick
The Vikings move up and get their QB of the future in Penix. He's right now in the top 2 for the Heisman and is putting up video gamee numbers for the Huskies. While his arm strength is good it's n not great and he has an extensive injury history. He also will have a very steep learning curve coming to the NFL but he has good arm talent and has shown an ability to throw with anticipation that most QBs never have.
31. Miami Dolphins - OT Jordan Morgan, Arizona
The Dolphins likey don't need anymore help on offense but they could still stand to improve on their offensive line. Morgan is a fast riser who has a ton of tools and could be an improvement for a Dolphins line that still leaves something to be desired.
32. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Chop Robinson, FSU
There is zero way this guy falls this far during the draft but I always pick one becuase, well it alays happens. For some reason in this one I had Robinson fall this far and just like the Eagles last year, sometimes teams get a stud player just by waiting. Do the 9ers need Robinson - no. But does adding him to that insane DL rotation give OL coaches heart palpitations, absolutely.
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